Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing?

Aloha, Lance Owens (RS) with LUVA Real Estate and our partners at KCM, there have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer (not in Kona median price last year $985k, today $1.277m ) . These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.

Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:

“[H]ome prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory (down about 38% on the Big Island) . And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:

“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on prices. Bankrate puts it like this:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:

“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”

Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.

With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.

Bottom Line



A lot of people expected prices would crash this year thanks to low buyer demand, but that isn’t happening. Why? There aren’t enough homes for sale. If you’re thinking about moving this spring, let’s connect.

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Lance Owens RB-24133
808.936.8383 

LUVA Real Estate | 75-240 Nani Kailua #8, Kailua Kona, HI 96740 
   REALTOR® / BROKER-IN-CHARGE • Residential homes, Condos, Land, Agricultural/ Equestrian/Large Acreage 
Hawaii Association of REALTORS® (HAR) 
    2025 President   2023/24 State RPAC Chair
    2023 HARLA Graduate 
National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) 
    2023-25 Director   2024-25 RPAC Participation Council   Safety Advisory Committee   Region 13 Leadership
NAR Designations
      AWHD (At Home With Diversity) | PSA ( Pricing Strategy Advisor) 
West Hawaii Association of REALTORS® (WHAR)
   2023 REALTOR® of the Year   2018/2022 President